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BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making's content profile, based on 39 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.11% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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A hierarchical clinical fusion transformer model for personalized opioid treatment: Development and validation in diabetic surgical patients

Naderalvojoud, B.; Sutjiadi, B. J.; Koul, A.; Curtin, C.; Gevaert, O.; Hernandez-Boussard, T.

2026-06-08 health informatics 10.64898/2026.06.04.26353331 medRxiv
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Background Machine learning (ML) models are increasingly used to predict adverse outcomes after surgery. However, most rely on static patient characteristics (e.g., age, comorbidities) and overlook clinician-controlled treatment decisions that can be actively modified at the point of care. Discharge opioid prescribing is a key modifiable, clinician-controlled decision, yet optimizing prescribing choices across multiple adverse outcomes remains underexplored in predictive modeling. This study addresses that gap by introducing a novel ML framework that explicitly separates fixed patient risk factors from modifiable prescribing options to support personalized, risk-informed opioid prescribing decisions. Methods We developed the Hierarchical Clinical Fusion Transformer (HCF-Transformer), an ML model designed to estimate patient-specific risks across four postoperative outcomes: prolonged opioid use (POU), chronic pain (CP), 30-day readmission, and opioid-associated outcomes (OAO). The model constructs patient risk profiles from fixed, non-modifiable baseline factors, followed by a transformer layer. Clinician-controllable discharge opioid regimens are modeled as alternative intervention candidates and fused with the fixed risk representation through a clinical fusion mechanism, enabling assessment and ranking based on predicted risks. A Total Relative Risk (TRR) metric, calibrated to each outcome prediction threshold, guides the recommendation process. We evaluated the model in diabetic surgical patients, a common high-risk population. Results The study included 157,853 unique diabetic surgical patients, with outcome prevalences ranging from 47.2% (POU) to 1.8% (OAO). The HCF-Transformer achieved the highest AUROCs, 0.798 for POU, 0.712 for 30-day readmission, 0.808 for CP, and 0.922 for OAO, outperforming Random Forest, FT-Transformer, and ResNet-based models. Compared to these baselines, HCF-Transformer generated more stable and discriminative risk estimates and demonstrated significant variation in TRR scores across discharge opioid options (ANOVA p < .01, eta-squared > .01). This enabled consistent identification of lower-risk regimens tailored to patient-specific profiles. Conclusions The HCF-Transformer introduces a novel hierarchical fusion approach to optimize opioid prescribing by integrating static patient risk profiles with modifiable discharge options. Using transformer-based modeling and a quantifiable TRR metric, the model delivers personalized, risk-aware recommendations. This approach enables data-driven opioid prescribing tailored to individual risk and has the potential to improve postoperative outcomes in high-risk populations. Our findings demonstrate that integrating modifiable factors with structured risk profiles through a transformer-based fusion architecture can enhance decision-support systems, paving the way for more actionable and personalized AI in healthcare.

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A Heterogeneous Graph Neural Network Framework for Multi-Horizon Stroke Mortality Prediction

Tharzeen, A.; Vafaei Sadr, A.; Radfar, N.; Hwang, W.; Abedi, V.; Zand, R.

2026-06-10 health informatics 10.64898/2026.06.09.26355176 medRxiv
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Background: Machine learning models for stroke mortality prediction typically treat each time horizon independently and use flat tabular features that ignore the relational structure of electronic health records (EHRs). In this pilot study, we leveraged graph-based machine learning models to predict post stroke all-cause-mortality across three different time horizons. Methods: We developed Stroke Temporal Heterogeneous Graph (StrokeTHG), a heterogeneous graph neural network model for simultaneous multi-horizon stroke mortality prediction (30-day, 90-day, 1-year) using EHR data from Penn State Health System. The model encodes various relations among EHR entities (e.g., patient, diagnosis, comorbidity) and temporal encoding of admission time to better predict stroke mortality. We compared our proposed approach against various baseline methods, including Logistic Regression, Random Forest, and XGBoost. We also performed ablation and subgroup analyses, evaluated the quality of learned graph embeddings, and assessed the importance of different edge types in the graph. Results: We included 4,144 stroke patients (mean age 69.2 years; 54.3% men), of whom 3,332 (80.4%) survived their stroke after one year. 30-day, 90-day, and 1-year mortality rates were 9.7%, 13.7%, and 19.6%, respectively. Our proposed approach, StrokeTHG, achieved AUROC of 0.872, 0.878, and 0.837 across horizons, outperforming all tabular baselines. At [&ge;] , 75% specificity, the model identified 5-10 percentage points more mortality cases than the best baseline at each horizon. Subgroup analysis demonstrated consistent performance across sex subgroups and the largest discriminative gains in the Age 65-80 stratum. Edge-type ablation identified phenotype-patient and admission-patient edges in the constructed EHR graph as the most influential relational edges for mortality prediction. StrokeTHG embeddings outperformed all graph and matrix factorization baselines under an identical downstream classifier, confirming that performance gains stem from representation quality rather than classifier capacity. Conclusions: StrokeTHG demonstrates that heterogeneous graph representations of EHR data provide a consistent improvement over flat tabular models for multi-horizon stroke mortality prediction, with particular advantage at clinically actionable sensitivity thresholds and novel multi-horizon monotonic prediction capability. This methodological framework may be adaptable to other EHR-based clinical research studies seeking to leverage heterogeneous relational structures for predictive modeling.

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Clinician-Centered Evaluation of Large Language Model-Generated Discharge Summaries for Longer Hospitalizations: Insights from Hospitalists and Primary Care Physicians

Osborne, T.; Mahmud, T.; Zheng, X.; Jampala, S.; Abbasi, S.; Hong, S.; Kranz, K.; Lee, S.; Ng, P.; Odekon, K.; Schachter, L.; Sexton, R.; Spinnato, T.; Tharakan, M.; Wu, Z.; Wang, F.; Wong, R.

2026-06-05 health systems and quality improvement 10.64898/2026.06.03.26354858 medRxiv
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Although large language models (LLMs) have shown promise for discharge summary generation, their value may be greater in longer hospitalizations, where increasing documentation volume and complexity increase both clinician burden and the risk of communication failures during transitions of care. Prior evaluations of LLM-generated discharge summaries have largely involved shorter stays and have rarely examined receiving-clinician priorities or incidental finding reporting. We compared LLM-generated and human-authored discharge summaries for 60 Internal Medicine hospitalizations lasting 7 to 21 days, with paired assessment by hospitalists and primary care physicians (PCPs). Clinician reviewers preferred LLM-generated summaries for 95% of encounters and rated them higher for quality, readability, factuality and completeness. PCPs, the primary recipients responsible for post-discharge care, found that LLM-generated summaries were better for understanding and communicating hospital care to patients, and providing follow-up care. LLM-generated summaries had fewer annotated errors, primarily due to fewer omissions, without increased estimated harm potential or likelihood compared with human-authored summaries. Benefits of LLM-generated summaries were especially salient for PCPs, who identified more omissions with greater downstream likelihood of harm than hospitalists. This underscores the importance of designing transition documents around the needs of clinicians assuming care post-discharge. LLM identification of radiology incidental findings was generally accurate and appropriate, suggesting potential to improve follow-up of clinically relevant findings. These findings extend prior work by demonstrating clinical value of LLMs in summarizing longer, complex hospitalizations and highlighting the value of stakeholder-centered design in clinical AI systems. Together, they support supervised LLM-assisted discharge summarization as a tool to reduce cognitive burden, improve documentation quality, and enhance transition-of-care communication.

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Quality and Safety profiles of AI-Generated vs Clinician-Generated Handoffs in Hospital Medicine

Shah, K. P.; Airan Javia, S.; Savage, T.; Bressman, E.

2026-06-08 health informatics 10.64898/2026.06.05.26354946 medRxiv
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End-of-rotation handoffs are critical for patient safety but add to documentation burden for hospitalists. Generative artificial intelligence (AI) may help automate handoff creation using electronic health record data, but its impact on quality and safety is unclear. Methods: We developed an AI handoff tool with a large language model using clinical notes as input and conducted a retrospective evaluation comparing AI-generated and clinician-authored handoffs. Handoffs were assessed across domains of quality and safety through a structured review. Results: Quality ratings were similar between AI and human handoffs (3.7 vs. 3.5, p=0.57). AI-generated handoffs were rated higher for organization (4.4 vs. 4.1, p=0.05) and completeness (4.1 vs. 3.6, p=0.01), but lower for conciseness (3.7 vs. 4.1, p=0.03) and accuracy (4.1 vs. 4.4, p=0.03). Error rates were comparable (0.3/handoff in both groups); however, AI-generated handoffs included inaccuracies (9% of AI errors) and hallucinations (1% of AI errors), while clinician-authored handoffs contained only omissions. Conclusion: Human and AI handoffs have differing error profiles and tradeoffs between completeness and conciseness. Prospective evaluation in clinical workflows is underway.

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Prototyping a Generative AI-powered Person-centered Digital Health Tool to Mitigate Risk of Preventable Adverse Drug Events

Dobbins, D.; Russell, A.; Gunther, M.; Shetty, V.; Shomali, A.; Vawdrey, D.; Waring, S.; Whary, P.; Wong, J.; Wright, E. A.; Olson, A. W.

2026-06-04 health systems and quality improvement 10.64898/2026.06.02.26354712 medRxiv
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Objectives: Older adults with comorbidities and polypharmacy have disproportionately high risk of hospitalization as well as readmission from adverse drug events (ADEs), of which 28%-71% are preventable (pADEs). This paper introduces an LLM application, CommunicADE, designed to support risk-mitigation of pADE-related readmission for the aforementioned population. We aim to evaluate CommunicADE's technical performance with OpenAI's HealthBench criteria: accuracy, completeness, communication quality, context awareness, and instruction following. Materials and Methods: Our technical validation study used an LLM (KimiK2.5) to simulate interviews between CommunicADE and nine high-fidelity synthetic patients hospitalized and at increased risk for pADE-related readmission (65+ years, comorbidities, 5+ medications). Some pADE risk mechanisms clues were visible to CommunicADE in patient H&Ps, but most mechanisms were solely discoverable in interviews. Two pharmacists evaluated CommunicADE's interview questions and EHR notes with HealthBench-informed variables. Analyzes used descriptive statistics. Results: For 35 mechanisms across 9 patients (avg=3.89 mechanisms/patient), CommunicADE's precision and recall were 0.92 and 0.63, respectively. Hallucinations were absent. Coherence and person-centeredness scored 4.28 and 4.44 on a 5-point scale (5=highest). On average, communication was at a 5th grade level and objective for 78% of patients. Most patient-reported quotes included in notes (92%) supported detected mechanisms. CommunicADE followed all instructions regarding interview length and patient approvals. Discussion: CommunicADE's strongest performance was in accuracy (precision, hallucinations), communication quality (coherence, readability), context awareness (person-centeredness). Completeness (recall) and instruction following (objectivity, pADE mechanism/quote alignment) show room for improvement. Conclusion: Findings suggest technical readiness for a feasibility pilot with real-world patients, and key areas for performance improvement.

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Combining centralized and decentralized approaches to assess and ensure data quality in Eurocrine(R) via Microsoft Power BI and DataquieR

Musholt, T. J.; Clerici, T.; Bergenfelz, A.; Schmidt, C. O.; Struckmann, S.

2026-06-05 health informatics 10.64898/2026.06.04.26354884 medRxiv
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Background: Medical registries have gained importance in the evaluation of healthcare quality outcomes. In the absence of high-quality evidence, such as randomized controlled trials, studies based on registry data are essential for informing clinical guidelines. Methods for assessing data quality are rarely described in detail. To ensure the credibility of registry-based studies, registries must use all available technical and operational means to guarantee high data quality. Method: Eurocrine(R) is a pan-European endocrine surgical database and quality registry initially funded by the EU healthcare programme, which started in 2015 and now includes more than 200,000 interventions as of April 2025. To ensure high data quality, interactive and standardized reports are created via Microsoft Power BI, which are created both centrally and locally. In addition, comprehensive data quality analyses were performed via the R-based package dataquieR. Results: Although a multitude of technical measures (for example, input screen design and real-time plausibility checks during data entry) are in place, they are not sufficient to prevent human errors at data entry. Errors identified in the reports were corrected, and preventive measures were implemented. Overall, the data quality was assessed as very good in terms of completeness, accuracy, and consistency. Conclusion: It is very important to provide registry users with an efficient and smart tool to identify data issues, as they have the clinical information to correct them. Data quality reports generated with dataquieR represent an effective tool for registry administrators. Predesigned Microsoft Power BI reports enable participating Eurocrine(R) clinics to self-audit their data.

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Correlates of time to presentation for stroke care among patients at a tertiary hospital in Ondo State, Nigeria: A retrospective records review

Ogunsemoyin, O.; Fayehun, O.

2026-06-09 health policy 10.64898/2026.06.06.26355064 medRxiv
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Introduction: Early hospital presentation after stroke onset is necessary for rapid assessment and access to time-dependent acute management. This study examined the correlates of late presentation for stroke care among patients recorded at a tertiary hospital in Ondo State, Nigeria. Methods: A retrospective records review was conducted using secondary data from the Stroke Registry of the University of Medical Sciences Teaching Hospital, radiology department records, referral notes, and ambulance records. Records of stroke cases documented within the preceding 24 months were reviewed. Late presentation was defined as hospital presentation more than four hours after symptom onset. Frequencies, chi-square tests, and modified Poisson regression with robust standard errors were used to estimate adjusted prevalence ratios. Results: The analysis included 371 stroke cases. Of these, 317 (85.4%) presented after four hours, and the median time to presentation was 24 hours (interquartile range: 9-72 hours). Late presentation differed significantly by employment status, first-contact route, and pathway complexity at bivariate analysis. After adjustment, non-hospital first contact remained strongly associated with late presentation: patients whose first documented contact was non-hospital-based had almost 3 times the prevalence of delay compared with those whose first contact was hospital-based (adjusted prevalence ratio = 2.89; 95% confidence interval: 2.15-3.90; p < 0.001). Conclusion: Late presentation was pervasive in this tertiary hospital record cohort and was primarily associated with the initial direction of care-seeking. Stroke response interventions should emphasise immediate hospital presentation and strengthen urgent referral from non-hospital first-contact points.

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Performance evaluation and benchmarking across 16 large language models on a comprehensive real-world emergency department triage data set

Benning, L.; Hirsch, A.; Groeschel, M.; Roeschl, T.; Spott, M.; Hans, F. P.; Urban, T.; Busch, H.-J.; Meyer, A.; Madrid, J.

2026-06-05 health informatics 10.64898/2026.05.28.26353935 medRxiv
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Background Emergency department (ED) triage is a high-stakes clinical decision process that determines patient prioritization and resource allocation under time pressure. Large language models (LLMs) have recently been proposed as decision-support tools for triage, yet most evaluations rely on simulated scenarios or curated datasets. Evidence from real-world clinical environments remains limited. The objective of this project was to systematically evaluate the performance, calibration, and reproducibility of multiple contemporary large language models for Emergency Severity Index (ESI) classification and sectoral allocation (ED vs. urgent care practice, UCP) using a comprehensive real-world triage dataset. Material and Methods Retrospective cross-sectional benchmarking study conducted at a tertiary academic emergency ED in Germany with an integrated central point of assessment (CPA). The study included all consecutive adult walk-in encounters (>18 years) presenting between October 2023 and February 2024 (N = 16,107). Data were collected from a structured clinical decision support system capturing presenting complaints, vital signs, and triage decisions recorded by specialized nursing staff. Structured clinical variables routinely collected at triage, including presenting complaint categories (CEDIS-PCL), vital signs according to the ABCDE framework, and additional structured or free-text clinical information. Results The primary outcome was the agreement between LLM-predicted and nurse-assigned ESI levels measured using quadratic-weighted Cohen's k. Secondary outcomes included sectoral assignment agreement, misclassification patterns (over- and under-triage), calibration metrics, and output reproducibility. Quadratic-weighted k values ranged from 0.18 to 0.75 across models. Only a structured stepwise prompting strategy achieved substantial agreement (k_qw = 0.747), approaching reported human inter-rater reliability. Most models demonstrated moderate or lower agreement and systematic overconfidence, with expected calibration errors (ECE) based on verbalized confidence ranging from 0.099 to 0.355. Sectoral assignment agreement (i.e. ED vs. urgent care practice, UCP) was uniformly low (k < 0.30). Reproducibility testing revealed substantial variability in 23% of cases, indicating non-deterministic output behavior for clinically relevant decisions. Conclusions Current large language models demonstrate heterogeneous and generally limited performance in real-world emergency triage tasks. Structured algorithm-guided prompting appears more influential than model architecture or size. Before clinical implementation, improvements in calibration, reliability, and workflow integration are required, alongside regulatory-compliant validation in prospective clinical settings.

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Next-Generation Skin Cancer Detection Using Efficient Fuzzy Fusion of Genomic and Imaging Data

Molla, A. R.; Maity, A.; Saha, S.; Bhattacharya, R.; Chakraborty, A.; Biswas, S.; Nath, S.

2026-06-08 health informatics 10.64898/2026.06.05.26355024 medRxiv
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Skin cancer requires early detection for improved survival rates. Most existing methods rely on deep learning based image classification, which is affected by visual similarity among lesions. Fewer studies use Gene Expression (GE) analysis, which captures molecular characteristics but lacks structural and visual details. To overcome limitations of individual modalities, this paper proposes a multimodal framework integrating dermoscopic images and GE profiles for skin cancer classification. EfficientNet and logistic regression are used for image based analysis and genomic skin lesion profiling, respectively, followed by fuzzy rule based decision systems to reduce uncertainty within individual modalities. Finally, fuzzy fusion combines predictions from both modalities using uncertainty based weighting of classifier outputs. The experimental findings show that both the image based and GE based classification models individually achieved accuracies of nearly 92%. However, the integration of prediction results through the proposed fuzzy fusion strategy further enhanced the classification performance, achieving an overall accuracy of 94.25%. The results obtained outperform contemporary methods, highlighting the effectiveness of combining complementary multimodal information compared with single modality approaches.

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A Comparison of Manual and Automated Approaches to Developing Computable Algorithms for Identifying Acute Pancreatitis

Bann, M. A.; Carrell, D. S.; Gruber, S.; Heagerty, P. J.; Williamson, B. D.; Nelson, J. C.; Hazlehurst, B.; Felcher, A.; Nyongesa, D. B.; Slaughter, M. T.; Sapp, D. S.; Cronkite, D. J.; Ball, R.; Floyd, J. S.

2026-06-08 health informatics 10.64898/2026.06.05.26354934 medRxiv
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Objective: Clinical phenotyping methods that rely on clinical and informatics expertise can be time-intensive and costly. We tested both manual and highly automated approaches using electronic health record (EHR) data to identify an FDA Sentinel Initiative health outcome of interest, acute pancreatitis. Materials and Methods: We trained and evaluated machine learning algorithms using EHR data with two approaches: a custom approach that included manually curated features and trained on outcomes data validated with medical record review, and a highly automated approach that greatly simplifies and automates feature engineering and relies on low-cost silver-standard outcomes for model training. Results: Custom algorithms using manually curated structured claims data discriminated cases from non-cases with a high degree of accuracy (cv-AUC 0.89 [95%CI 0.84-0.94]); the inclusion of natural language processing (NLP)-derived covariates from clinical notes increased performance slightly (cv-AUC 0.91[95%CI 0.86-0.97]). The automated algorithm trained on the outcome count of diagnosis codes performed less well (AUC 0.80 [95% CI 0.75-0.85]) but improved using maximum lipase value as an outcome (AUC 0.88 [95% CI 0.84-0.92]). At a positive predictive value of 90%, the custom algorithm had a sensitivity of 92%, the automated algorithm trained on diagnosis code count had a sensitivity of 45%, and the automated algorithm trained on maximum lipase value had a sensitivity of 84%. However, a prediction rule derived by clinicians during chart review was nearly as accurate (maximum lipase value [&ge;] 3 times upper limit of normal; AUC 0.86, PPV 85%, sensitivity 92%). Discussion: Machine learning algorithms with manually curated structured data and NLP features trained on validated outcomes data successfully identified validated events. Use of an outcome in the automated model based on specific phenotype knowledge (maximum lipase value) allowed for performance similar to the custom model and with considerably less resources.

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A Data-Driven Framework for Generating Population-Linked Case Vignettes from Nationwide Triage Data

Seidel, A.; Steiger, E.; Schuster, J.; Kroll, L. E.

2026-06-10 health informatics 10.64898/2026.06.08.26354886 medRxiv
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Background: Digital decision-support tools such as triage systems and symptom checkers support millions of health-related decisions each year. Their quality and safety are commonly evaluated using textual patient cases, known as case vignettes. However, existing vignette sets written by medical experts cover only a limited spectrum of real-world patient presentations and lack population weights, which would allow extrapolating evaluation results to the underlying patient population. Objective: This study aims to develop a data-driven framework for automatically generating a human-manageable set of case vignettes from nationwide triage data that captures broad presentation diversity and links each vignette to a quantitative weight reflecting the number of underlying patient assessments. Methods: From 3.2 million triage assessments conducted over one year using structured triage software in the German medical on-call service (telephone triage and online self-triage) and at the joint contact points of the outpatient emergency care service and hospital emergency departments, we randomly sampled 50,000 cases. Triage questionnaires were converted into semantic embeddings using a German Sentence Transformer Model and grouped by agglomerative clustering. For clusters containing sufficient assessments, we generated one representative assessment using a two-phase simulated-annealing optimization. The optimization minimized the distance to the cluster centroid while maximizing the number of answered triage questions, aiming for high representativeness and information content. Each representative assessment was assigned the size of its source cluster as its sample-based weight. A similarity-based sensitivity analysis was performed to examine whether these weights were preserved in the full 1-year population. Finally, the question-answer pairs of the representative assessments were converted into structured textual case vignettes using controlled prompting of a large language model. Results: The cluster analysis yielded 514 included clusters covering 96.8% of the sampled 50,000 assessments. The generated representatives showed strong agreement with the majority treatment-urgency recommendation of their source cluster (Spearman's {rho}=0.78, p<0.001) and contained on average 4.3 more answered triage questions than the original assessments within their clusters. When weighted by cluster size, the representatives approximated the sample distributions of treatment urgency, demographics, and symptoms, although some systematic deviations remained, most notably an overrepresentation of female cases (+13.5%), patients aged 14-49 years (+8.0%), and the urgency category "As soon as possible" (+6.6%). Of 121 recorded symptoms, 101 (83.5%) were covered by the representatives; the rest each occurred in <0.5% of the sample. In a sensitivity analysis, cluster-based vignette weights were strongly correlated with similarity-based population weights (Spearman's {rho}=0.77, p<0.001), and 90.1% of assessments in the full 1-year population were matched to at least one vignette. Conclusions: We present a data-driven framework for deriving a manageable set of population-weighted case vignettes from nationwide triage data. The resulting vignettes captured broad presentation diversity, approximated key sample characteristics, and provided an explicit quantitative link to the number of underlying patient assessments. After medical expert review and refinement, the vignettes may support more population-aware evaluation and quality assurance of digital decision-support tools.

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A Three-Tier Operational Benchmark for Evaluating Large Language Models on Hospital Medication Safety

Proulx, J.; Daines, B.; Barton, M.; Leonard, M. E.; Garcia, J. A.; Young, B.; Snell, Q.; West, T. W.; Watson, S. R.; AlQaseer, M.; Louiset, M.; Maqsood, M. B.; Voutt-Goos, M. J.; Douma, C.; Kasbekar, N.; Jeffries, J.; Abu-Rahmeh, W.; Frush, K.; Grewal, D. K.; Bahsoun, M.; Leonard, M.; Frankel, A.; Classen, D. C.; Pestotnik, S. L.

2026-06-10 health informatics 10.64898/2026.06.05.26354271 medRxiv
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Objective. To introduce PsiBench, a clinically validated medication-safety benchmark for evaluating large language models (LLMs) against the standards used to certify hospital computerized provider order entry (CPOE) and electronic health record (EHR) systems, and a non-overlapping three-tier evaluation framework separating highest-stakes discrimination, the operational CDS regime, and category-correct alerting. Materials and Methods. PsiBench comprises 492 medication-safety scenarios across 11 safety categories, created by clinical pharmacology experts whose work underpins an annualized testing procedure used by more than 2,000 U.S. hospitals. The three-tier framework partitions the scenarios non-overlappingly: Discrimination (98 scenarios, 50 fatal vs 48 deception, near-balanced 51%/49%); Operational (394 scenarios, 261 serious unsafe plus 133 safe including 41 Excessive Alerts reclassified as operational negatives); and Attribution (311 alert-required scenarios). We evaluated 40 frontier LLMs from 10 providers over 3 runs per scenario at temperature 0.2 (or the provider default where temperature is not configurable), yielding 59,040 evaluations conducted April 21-23, 2026. Results. Headline binary performance on the full benchmark spans a wide range across the 40 models: F1 78.5%-92.3%, accuracy 65.4%-89.8%, sensitivity 81.4%-100.0%, specificity 6.1%-81.8%. Leading models by F1 (o4-mini 92.3%; o3 92.2%) pair high sensitivity with meaningful specificity; three models saturate sensitivity at 100% but fall below 25% specificity, indistinguishable from a naive always-alert classifier. The wide spread on a single headline metric motivates tier-specific analyses, developed in a separate clinical paper. Discussion and Conclusion. PsiBench and the three-tier framework operationalize a rigorous evaluation rubric for LLM medication safety, grounded in two decades of national hospital audit experience. The framework generalizes to any binary medication-safety classifier (rule-based, conventional ML, or LLM-driven), supporting tier-aware model selection and post-deployment surveillance.

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STDP-inspired temporal transition modeling for adaptive clinical risk prediction from electronic health records

Gong, L.; Aswani, N.; Shahinian, P.; Yang, J. Y.; Kontos, D.; Manji, G.; Kang, S.; Hur, C.

2026-06-09 health policy 10.64898/2026.06.04.26354919 medRxiv
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Electronic health record (EHR) prediction models often summarize longitudinal histories as static patient-level features, which may omit potentially informative event ordering. We developed a simplified spike-timing-dependent plasticity (STDP)-inspired framework that represents asynchronous EHR data as sparse, directional transition features. The approach encodes whether one clinical event precedes another within prespecified temporal windows, preserving event identity, directionality, and approximate timing while retaining feature-level interpretability. We evaluated this framework in two retrospective prediction tasks with different temporal scales: incident acute kidney injury (AKI) prediction in 17,351 MIMIC-IV ICU stays and early postoperative recurrence prediction in 713 CUMC patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). Models were compared with static burden features (demographics, comorbidities, raw lab measurements) and in addition with STDP transitional feature sets using patient-level cross-validation and rolling prediction horizons. In AKI, a calibrated STDP ensemble model showed higher discrimination than static burden alone at the 24-hour decision snapshot for AKI by 72 hours, with AUROC 0.838 versus 0.800, and at 48 hours for near-term AKI prediction, with AUROC 0.868 versus 0.827. In PDAC, STDP transition features modestly improved Day -30 preoperative recurrence prediction, with AUROC 0.611 versus 0.587 and AUPRC 0.323 versus 0.318 for static burden and showed similar performance at Day 0 (7 days before recorded surgery date), with AUROC 0.681 and AUPRC 0.363. Decision-curve and feature analyses suggested that selected temporal transitions were clinically interpretable across renal, inflammatory, hepatobiliary, hematologic, glycemic, and nutritional trajectories. These findings suggest that STDP-inspired transition features may provide a practical, interpretable way to incorporate temporal ordering into EHR-based risk prediction across both acute and longitudinal settings

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Calibrating trust in AI-assisted pituitary surgery

Hudson, G. R.; Khan, D. Z.; Fayez, F.; Bhatia, S.; Bano, S.; Costanza, E.; Blandford, A.; Stoyanov, D.; McCulloch, P.; Marcus, H. J.; University College London Collaborators,

2026-06-04 surgery 10.64898/2026.06.02.26354735 medRxiv
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Background: Endoscopic endonasal transsphenoidal surgery (EETS) requires navigation around neurocritical anatomy. Today, artificial intelligence clinical decision support systems (AI-CDSSs) can orientate surgeons, but clinician trust in AI remains unclear, limiting safe deployment. This study evaluates how modifiable design affects trust and performance in a real-world pituitary surgery AI-CDSS. Method: Online, 70 clinicians with pituitary surgery experience were randomised evenly to a Basic or Enhanced AI-CDSS which outline the sella on EETS operative video. The Enhanced group additionally received explanation of the model and previous publications, alongside confidence labels depicting outline reliability. Both groups annotated the sella on six video clips, first alone then with the optional AI-CDSS. Clips were ordered by declining AI performance, except for the final clip. Self-reported trust was measured using a 1-7 scale after each annotation, and performance was the DICE overlap between user annotations and the ground truth. Comparisons used Mann-Whitney U and permutation analysis. Results: Sixty-four participants (91%) finished the exercise (31 Basic, 33 Enhanced). When AI performed best, median trust was 5.00 in both arms (U=559, p=.521). However, when AI performed worst, trust was significantly lower for the Enhanced group (3.00 vs 3.67, U=668, p=.035), sustained in the final clip (3.67 vs 4.33 U=687, p=.019). User performance improved with the AI-CDSS, but with no significant difference between the groups on the best or worst AI performing clips. Nevertheless, for the best AI, senior clinicians had higher median performance in the Enhanced group (0.95 vs 0.90, U=75, p=.066). There was also less dispersion in the Enhanced group when AI was inaccurate (IQR: 0.07 vs 0.21, p=.004). Conclusion: Interface design can improve trust calibration in a surgical AI-CDSS and may increment performance in seniors when AI is accurate, and consistency when AI is inaccurate. In future, these features may form important safety checks during translation to the operating room.

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Cross-Sectional Validation of an 8-Electrode Multi-Frequency Bioelectrical Impedance Analysis (BIA) Device Against Dual-Energy X-ray Absorptiometry (DEXA) for Body Composition Assessment in Indian Adults

Bheda, A.; Sharma, M.; Jokare, N.; Kapoor, S.; Chouksey, J.

2026-06-09 nutrition 10.64898/2026.05.24.26353564 medRxiv
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Background: Obesity is becoming a global health crisis, and it leads to various metabolic disorders. Body mass index fails to differentiate fat mass from lean mass and systematically misclassifies adiposity risk - a limitation particularly pronounced in South Asian adults, who exhibit characteristically elevated visceral adiposity and reduced appendicular lean mass at a normal BMI. The 2025 Lancet Commission explicitly recommends direct adiposity measurement beyond BMI for obesity diagnosis. Weight loss interventions - whether dietary, behavioural, or pharmacological - are consistently associated with concurrent reductions in both fat mass and lean mass, making body composition monitoring essential beyond scale weight alone. Although DEXA is globally accepted as a gold standard for body composition analysis, the accessibility of DEXA is limited, particularly in resource-constrained low and middle-income countries such as India. BIA devices are a convenient low-cost option to DEXA and can be used for body composition analysis more frequently than a DEXA scan to provide longitudinal data. The aim of this study is to validate 8 electrode BIA devices as a viable alternative to DEXA scan for the South Asian population. Methods: A prospective cross-sectional validation study was conducted following ethics committee approval, with a priori sample size estimation ( = 0.05, power = 80%). Fifty-eight healthy adults (n=58) underwent three BIA measurements and one DEXA scan each. To ensure statistical independence, the three BIA readings per participant were averaged, yielding 58 final measurements for validation. Body fat percentage, lean mass and fat mass were evaluated using Python with statistical analyses like Bland Altman analysis, Pearson correlation, ICC and regression analysis. Results: In this BIA vs DEXA study, the Pearson correlation was strong across all three outcomes (fat%: r = 0.97; fat mass: r = 0.98; lean mass: r = 0.96), with ICC (2,1) values of 0.94, 0.97, and 0.91 confirming excellent absolute agreement. Mean absolute error was 3.40% for fat percentage, 1.96 kg for fat mass, and 3.37 kg for lean mass. BIA systematically underestimated body fat percentage (bias -1.96%, 95% CI: -2.91% to -1.01%; LoA: -9.04% to +5.12%) and fat mass (bias -0.72 kg, 95% CI: -1.38 to -0.07 kg; LoA: -5.59 to +4.14 kg), while overestimating lean mass by +3.08 kg (95% CI: +2.34 to +3.82 kg; LoA: -2.46 to +8.62 kg). Conclusions: The 8-electrode BIA device shows clinically acceptable agreement with DEXA for body composition assessment in healthy Indian adults. It offers a radiation-free, cost-effective, accessible, and portable alternative to DEXA, making it suitable for longitudinal monitoring and trend detection. The device is particularly valuable for obesity screening and for tracking body composition changes during weight loss interventions at the population level, addressing the critical need for accessible body composition assessment in resource-limited settings.

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Analytical Centralization of Health Expenditure at the National Administrator of Health System Resources: Architecture, Data Quality, and Operational Performance of the ADRES Health System Analytics Platform, Colombia

Garavito Jimenez, D. A.; Bello Angulo, D. E.; Mejia Lemus, L. T.; Chipatecua, D.; Fula, D. D.; Perez-Rubiano, S.; Martinez, F. L.; Bohorquez Pinzon, J. C.

2026-06-10 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.08.26355159 medRxiv
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Between 2024 and 2025, Colombia universalized the Electronic Health Invoice with embedded Individual Health Services Delivery Records (RIPS -- Registro Background Between 2024 and 2025, Colombia universalized the Electronic Health Invoice with embedded RIPS records (FEV-RIPS) as the standard for financial and clinical data exchange. ADRES -- the entity responsible for administering the resources of Colombia's General Social Security Health System -- faced the challenge of processing information from multiple heterogeneous sources generated by more than 55,000 healthcare providers. Health systems in high-income countries converge clinical-financial data in consolidated platforms; Colombia started from a fragmented architecture with incompatible historical sources, no cross-database standardization, and no centralized analytical infrastructure until 2023. Objective We describe the design, technical challenges of integrating heterogeneous data, and operational performance of the analytical infrastructure built by ADRES to centralize large-scale processing of Colombian health system information, and derive transferable lessons for health system resource administrators in Latin America facing equivalent digitalization mandates. Methods Technical-descriptive report based on operational metrics from the ADRES Azure/Databricks environment during January-November 2025. We report indicators of data volume, processing speed, computational capacity, concurrent use by functional group, and governance structure. The architecture integrates VPN connectivity with MinSalud, automated processing of multiple formats (XML, relational tables, flat files), and a medallion data lake (Bronze/Silver/Gold). Data quality challenges include structural inconsistencies across sources, coding incompatibilities (municipalities, dates, diagnoses), format heterogeneities in unstructured data, and absent technical documentation. Results The platform manages 21 catalogs, 1,183 tables, and over 110,645 million stored records, with cumulative production exceeding 1 trillion processed records. It executes queries on 100 billion records in ten seconds using clusters of up to 32 TB RAM and 4,096 vCPU. During September-October 2025, monthly query peaks reached 78,028 across eleven functional groups. Integration required Python/PySpark parsers for variable-depth XML, equivalence tables for incompatible municipality codes, cleaning routines for extreme dates used as nulls (1900-01-01, 9999-12-31), and transformation logic bridging classic RIPS and FEV-RIPS. The platform supported econometric analyses, judicial mandate responses, and public interactive dashboards. Conversational AI integration (Genie, Copilot) extends analytical access to users without SQL knowledge. Conclusions ADRES built in one year an analytical infrastructure that provides, to our knowledge, the first published documentation of the systemic technical challenges of integrating heterogeneous data sources in a middle-income social security health system. Centralizing health system information at national scale is technically feasible under public institutional constraints -- but requires solving cross-source standardization problems the implementation literature does not document with quantitative precision. The derived lessons are transferable to health system resource administrators in Latin America facing equivalent challenges.

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When Algorithms Prescribe: A Cross-Sectional Study of Quality, Misinformation, and Engagement in Statin-Related Content on TikTok

Gharibyan, I.; Ahner, E.; Shao, R.; Sharma, D.; Navarsartian Tazehkand, T.; Diep, J.; Assoumou, B.

2026-06-08 health informatics 10.64898/2026.06.04.26354962 medRxiv
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Background: Statins are key to preventing atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and lowering low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and cardiovascular events. However, skepticism regarding their safety and value persists and is increasingly influenced by social media. TikTok has emerged as a major source of health information, but its content varies in quality and accuracy. This study evaluated the quality, attitudes, misinformation, and engagement of statin-related content on TikTok. Methods: Public TikTok videos were collected using predefined search terms and coded by creator type, thematic content, and overall attitude. Video quality was assessed using the DISCERN instrument, the Patient Education Materials Assessment Tool for Audiovisual Materials, and the Global Quality Score. False or misleading claims were independently reviewed by two cardiology fellows. Associations between engagement and quality were also examined. Results: Of 1,349 screened videos, 258 met inclusion criteria. Most were educational (91.0%), with non-physician healthcare providers (34.5%) as the largest creator group. Risks or negative effects were discussed more often than benefits (63.2% vs 42.2%), and 39.5% contained at least one false or misleading claim, most often from complementary and alternative medicine providers and wellness promoters. Quality differed by creator type across all instruments, with physician-created content scoring highest. Video popularity showed minimal association with informational quality. Conclusion: Statin-related TikTok content frequently emphasizes harms, often contains misinformation, and varies substantially in quality by creator type. Greater involvement of healthcare professionals on social media may help improve digital health literacy and counter misleading information about statin therapy.

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Real-time Computer Vision Assisted Navigation for Endoscopic Pituitary Surgery: Iterative Development and Comparative Preclinical Evaluation

Khan, D. Z.; Mao, Z.; Hudson, G.; Wijekoon, A.; Chen, J.-e.; Borg, A.; Dorward, N.; Blandford, A.; Clarkson, M.; McCulloch, P.; Bano, S.; Stoyanov, D.; Marcus, H.

2026-06-04 surgery 10.64898/2026.06.02.26354760 medRxiv
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Background Endoscopic pituitary surgery involves navigating high-stakes anatomy where complications, such as carotid artery injury, cause devastating morbidity. While computer vision AI offers potential for real-time anatomical recognition to mitigate these risks, successful translation requires rigorous human-factors and performance evaluation. We present the iterative development and preclinical evaluation of a surgeon-controlled, real-time AI-assisted navigation system. Methods Guided by IDEAL Stage 0 and DECIDE-AI frameworks, the study was conducted in two phases. Phase 1 was an exploratory study where surgeons used the system during high-fidelity simulated surgery and provided feedback via "Think Aloud" protocols and surveys. Following prototype iteration, a Phase 2 randomized crossover comparative trial was conducted with 19 neurosurgeons (15 trainees, 4 experts) performing high-fidelity simulated tumour resections with and without AI assistance, separated by a minimum 2-week washout. The primary outcome was surgical technical performance (OSATS). Workload, educational value, usability, trust, and implementation outcomes were also assessed. Results Phase 1 informed hardware, model, and interface refinements, including optimized pedal-controlled overlays and prediction confidence metrics. In the comparative trial, AI assistance significantly improved overall technical performance (OSATS 19.79+/-4.06 vs. 17.32+/-4.11; p=0.027). This gain was experience-dependent; AI significantly augmented trainee performance (19.20+/-3.76 vs. 16.60+/-3.78), narrowing the proficiency gap, while expert performance remained high and stable. 100% of participants identified the system as a useful training tool. However, subjective workload was significantly higher in the AI arm (SURG-TLX 26.42+/-9.56 vs. 22.26+/-7.81; p=0.014). Despite this, usability (SUS 75.13+/-14.31) and implementation feasibility, acceptability, and appropriateness scores were consistently high (means >4.4/5). Conclusions This study provides a stepwise process for real-time AI development using pituitary surgery as a high-stakes exemplar. The refined surgeon-centric AI system improves training and technical performance, particularly for trainees. Next steps involve first-in-human studies and further exploration of longer-term human factors such as over-reliance, cognitive overload mitigation and trust calibration.

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Characterizing Documented Psychosocial Stressors in Pediatric Psychiatric Emergencies with an Open-Weight Large Language Model

Hartlage, C. S.; Manning, E. R.; Bernard, J.; Vaish, S.; Gray, J.; Young, M.; Pestian, T.; Folger, A. T.; Tachinardi, P.; Mendonca, E. A.; Brokamp, C.

2026-06-09 health informatics 10.64898/2026.06.08.26354931 medRxiv
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Objective: To evaluate whether a locally hosted open-weight large language model (LLM) can extract documented psychosocial factors from pediatric psychiatric intake notes and apply validated extraction to a large emergency psychiatry cohort. Materials and Methods: We identified emergency department presentations at Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center from January 1, 2016, through December 31, 2024, among patients younger than 18 years with psychiatric billing diagnoses. Using full-text intake notes, gpt-oss:120b classified peer conflict, sleep disruption, and school-related academic, attendance, and disciplinary issues as detected, negated, or indeterminate. Four human raters independently reviewed 50 notes. We compared Fleiss' kappa among humans alone versus humans plus the LLM, assessed repeated-query stability across 50 independent calls per note, and applied the workflow to all eligible notes. Results: Among 37,315 eligible admissions, 22,284 had eligible intake notes; 22,270 produced parseable JSON. In detected-versus-not-detected coding, human-plus-LLM reliability did not differ significantly from human-only reliability across measures (human {kappa} 0.71-0.94; human-plus-LLM {kappa} 0.70-0.93). Stability was associated with human agreement: mean LLM-human agreement increased from 42.6% for classifications with less than 80% stability to 82.7% for classifications with 100% stability (Pearson r = 0.36). Full-cohort extraction showed frequent and overlapping documented factors: sleep disruption was most frequently detected (57.7%), followed by peer conflict (47.2%), academic issues (43.4%), disciplinary issues (43.3%), and attendance issues (16.9%). Discussion: Agreement varied by construct and was strongest when repeated model outputs were stable. Conclusion: Locally hosted open-weight LLMs can support scalable structured extraction of documented psychosocial factors from pediatric psychiatric intake notes after local validation.

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Care-seeking pathways and time to tertiary hospital presentation for stroke care in Ondo State, Nigeria

Ogunsemoyin, O.; Fayehun, O.

2026-06-08 health systems and quality improvement 10.64898/2026.06.04.26354906 medRxiv
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Introduction: Stroke care is time-sensitive, yet patients in low-resource settings may reach tertiary services only after passing through multiple formal and informal care options. This study examined documented care-seeking pathways and time to presentation among stroke cases recorded at the University of Medical Sciences Teaching Hospital (UNIMEDTH), Ondo State, Nigeria. Methods: A retrospective hospital record review was conducted using secondary data from the Stroke Registry, radiology department records, referral notes, and ambulance records at UNIMEDTH. The analysis included 371 stroke cases with documented time from symptom onset to UNIMEDTH presentation and reconstructable care pathways. First-contact routes were classified as hospital/biomedical, self/informal or traditional/faith-based care, and the number of documented steps defined pathway complexity before and including tertiary presentation. Frequencies and percentages described pathway patterns; median presentation times were compared using Mann-Whitney U and Kruskal-Wallis tests. Results: The median time to tertiary presentation was 24 hours (interquartile range [IQR] 9-72), and 317 patients (85.4%) presented after four hours. Only 30 patients (8.1%) presented directly to UNIMEDTH; 44 distinct care-pathway sequences were recorded. Hospital-facility first contact was documented for 81 patients (21.8%). It was associated with a median presentation time of 3 hours (IQR 2-6), compared with 48 hours (IQR 24-72) among patients whose initial contact was outside a hospital facility (U = 699.50, p < 0.001). The median time also differed across grouped first-contact categories and pathway complexity levels (both p < 0.001). Conclusion: Non-hospital or multi-step care-seeking pathways commonly preceded tertiary stroke presentations in this setting. The findings indicate that delayed tertiary arrival is partly embedded in the pathway followed after symptom onset. Interventions should combine public recognition of stroke warning signs with urgent referral linkages involving hospitals, patent medicine vendors, traditional and faith-based providers, and emergency transport systems.